Regional analysis of river discharge in Markazi Basin of Iran

Quantitative analysis of runoff and estimates of stream flow in gauged basins and its transferring to ungauged sites has special importance for water resources planning, watershed and agricultural lands management, as the layout and optimal design of diversion structures and flow control need runoff information with different probability levels. In this research, runoff information of hydrometric stations which located in river catchments of Isfahan, Markazi, Qom, Tehran, Hamadan and Qazvin provinces was collected and investigated. In this regard, such stations which included data with the appropriate quality and quantity were selected in a common period of time. In this case study, results of cluster analysis concluded three homogeneous regions of watershed based on independent variables. According to mean annual runoff probability analysis; the best statistical distribution was fitted and runoff values were determined with return periods of 2 to 100 year. Also, regional runoff models based on hydrological and morphometric parameters were extracted with different return periods for each homogeneous region. In each homogeneous region, evaluation of regression models obtained was carried out using a number of hydrometric stations control. In this case study, area, average slope, main river slope, length and gravilus coefficient of watershed were detected as the most influential parameters in estimation of runoff. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for models represented minimum values of 1.2, 5, 7.6 with two years return period and maximum values of 14.4, 32.8 and 18 with 100 years return period in the first, second and third homogeneous groups, respectively.