A New Algorithm for the Sensivity Analysis of Critical Path in Pert Networks Considering Project Risk

Taking into account the uncertain time duration for each activity in a pert network, we would need to accept the notion that the critical path the project could vary a number of times during its execution. If this variations take place frequently during the project in an unpredictable manner, it could endanger the efficient managment of the project and in addition to lengthening the time frame of execution, it would result in financial burden.The objective of this article is to present an algorithm that potentially prevents the occurance of unpredictable events in the critical path. Using the proposed algorithm, after the identification of risk in each activity and the quantitative and qualitative analyses of the activities,we calculate the respective time durations considering the different events that could carry potential risk for the purpose of risk management. Furthurmore, a parameter called MVC identifies an interval and if the related activity duration falls in that interval, the critical path would be changed.Then through the techniques of Enginerring Economy and Decision Making, conclusions are drawn to whether allow the critical path to undergo variation under anticipated situation or not.