Optimum Design of Levees Considering Hydrologic,Hydraulic and Economic Uncertainties by Monte Carlo Method

Design, analysis and operation of flood control systems are subjected to several uncertainties due to inherent behavior of flooding and random errors associated with measurements. One of these issues is, the design of levees that collaborated with hydrologic, hydraulic and economic uncertainties. In this paper, for the design of levees considering these uncertainties a stochastic optimization model based on Monte Carlo simulation has been developed. The resulted model is a nonlinear stochastic model that has been solved by LINGO-13 software. A reach in the Moali-abad river in the north of Shiraz city, has been considered as case study. Obtained results are compared with results of deterministic model. According to the results of the of model, a 20-year return period flood like deterministic model had highest annual net benefit and was selected as the design flood. Unlike the deterministic model, that every output (design parameters) is single valued, stochastic model gives a range for each parameter. Thus the statistical distributions of these parameters are also obtained.