Risk assessment of climate change impacts on wheat production and phenology (case study: Ahvaz Region)

In recent years human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Increases in [CO2] caused global warming and Climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative impacts on agricultural systems. Therefore، the aim of this study was to assess potential climate change impact on production for one of the most important varieties of wheat (chamran) in Ahvaz Region. For this purpose، thirteen AOGCM models and two greenhouse gases emission (GHG) scenarios (A2 and B1) is selected. Daily temperature and precipitation data were calculated for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2070-2099) under five probability levels (0. 10، 0. 25، 0. 50، 0. 75 and 0. 90). The combination of temperature and precipitation scenarios resulted in 50 climate change scenarios under each GHG emissions scenario (A2 and B1). Wheat growth was simulated in baseline period (1980-2010) and future periods (2015-2045 and 2070-2100) using calibrated and validated CERES-Wheat model. Results showed wheat growth season is shortened with climate change affects، especially in the 2070-2100 period. Comparing of Wheat yield in climate change conditions with base period regard to considered risk value (0. 1) showed that wheat yield in 2015-2045 and 2070-2100 is decreased about 4 and 15 percent، respectively.