An approach to yield prediction of barley using teleconnection signals (Case study: Kabootarabad, Isfahan)

AbstractBarley (Hordeum Vulgare. L) is an important source of food and second major cereal crop in Iran. The objective of this study is proposing an approach for barley yield forecasting by means of coupling AquaCrop model with several climate teleconnection signals in Kabootarabad-Isfahan, Iran. The experiments were conducted at Kabootarabad agrometeorological station during 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons. The crop model was calibrated using field observations. For validation purpose, the available 15 years historical data were used. Then using 62 years (1951-2013) weather data, crop yield was simulated. Monthly historical records of five phases of SOI (South Oscillation Index) and three phases of IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) phases for three months prior to planting date (i.e. September, October and November) from 1951 till 2013 were selected and cumulative probability distributions functions of simulated barley yields were worked out for 62 years. Results showed that there are no significant differences between the SOI and IOD phases except for IOD phases of November. Kruskal-Wallis test showed significant differences between IOD phases (P=0.005). Also, Mann-Whitney test indicated that there were significant differences between normal and negative (p=0.012) and positive and negative (p=0.006) IOD phases. Since IOD values are available 3 to 6 months in advance, therefore yield prediction 3 month before sowing might be feasible. During negative and positive IOD phases, using drought resistant cultivars, lower plant densities and other drought mitigation strategies could be considered as management options.