Investigation Effect of Driver's Age and Environmental Factors on Risk of Motorcycle Accident Based On Concept of Quasi-Induced Exposure

Accident risk equal to the number of accidents for a given exposure index is an appropriate measure to evaluate the effects of various factors on the occurrence of the accident. The main exposure index used to calculate accident risk، vehicle- kilometers are traveled. The main problem of vehicle-kilometers covered by this lack of information، especially when exposed to a specific group of users of the transport system (eg young drivers) or special circumstances (e. g. during the night) is to be doubled. The researchers therefore indirect measures of exposure such as the induced and the quasi-induced exposure to solve this problem have been proposed. In this studyinfluence of human factor (age) and environmental factors، including location (urban، rural)، site geometry (straight، curve horizontal) and lighting (day، night)، in risk of motorcycle driver at-fault in accident investigated. the Method was based on concept of quasi-induced exposure that based on innocent drivers /riders in two-vehicle accident with one-fault and one non-fault can be considered as a sample of the total population of drivers in time of accident. Data related to traffic accidents in 1390 in Iran which a total of 39،014 samples for analysis were. The results show that probability of at-fault younger and older drivers are more than middle-aged drivers and environmental factors، including rural (RR=1. 25، Sig<. 006)، curve (RR=1. 31، Sig<. 012) and day (RR=1. 12، Sig<. 026) increase probability of at-fault motorcycle drivers. Also effects of environmental factor on young drivers are most of the other drivers and lighting effect in urban and direct routes are less than rural routes and horizontal curves. Finally construction special routes in rural routes for motorcycle،more monitoring in inspection of the motorcycle lighting system، practical training in increasing skills and education of drivers about the dangers of motorcycle to reduce risk of motorcycle accidents are suggested.