Estimation of Tax Economic Capacity in the Provinces of the Country with Spatial Econometric Approach

Regarding the importance of tax revenues in funding the government expenditure، estimation of the tax capacity can play a major role in economic policies. Therefore، in this study، the estimation of economic tax capacity is reviewed in the provinces of the country during the period of 1380 – 1390 (2001-2011)، the tax capacity of the taxes share of the provincial gross domestic product is defined، and spatial econometrics method is used for estimating the economic tax capacity. The results show that increase in the Human Development Index (HDI) results in the increase of income tax، sales tax، wealth tax، and total tax، and also show that the share of agricultural sector added value from total added value is indirectly effective on tax capacity. Also، increase in the share of industry and mining sector added value from total added value leads to increase in income tax and total tax، while increase in added value is not positively effective on sales tax and wealth tax.