Developing a method to assess forest fire risk using environmental and human variables

A study was conducted to evaluate fire risk using environmental- and human-induced factors in‌ District Three of Neka-Zalemroud forests. For this purpose, a range of effective sub-criteria including physiographic, biological, climatic and human variables were applied. The historical fire map‌‌‌ in study area was additionally used. It was overlaid on the spatial map of each sub-criterion to explore the correlation of the weighted high-risk classes with the historical fire occurrences. Fire risk potential map was provided based on weighted overlay of all effective sub-criteria in five classes. The historical fire map was consequently overlaid on fire risk potential map. Results showed that vegetation type and density, distance from river and the averaged relative annual humidity were associated with the highest effects in fire occurrence. Results also demonstrated the agreement of high-risk areas in the potential fire risk map with the historical fires, which supports the high validity of the applied method to assess the fire risk across the study area.