A 23-Year Analysis of Dependency Ratio in Rural Population in Fars Province during 1990-2012: A Trend Analysis Study

The dependency ratio (DR) is defined as the ratio of the non-working population to the economically active population. Dependency ratio is calculated by the sum of population under fifteen years and over 65 years divided by 15-64 year old population. The interpretation of DR variation gives us the impact of health care services and some reproductive interventions. This study analyzed a 23-year DR trend in rural population of Fars province and the effect of some fertility variables on it. In this study, using data from vital horoscope and regression analysis, we analyzed a 23-year period of DR and some fertility indicators. The total DR significantly declined from 102.5% in 1990 to 41.4% in 2012 (P<0.001). Most of this reduction is attributed to reduction in young DR. Old dependency ratio (population of 65 years and more) was significantly growing (P<0.035). Number of rural health house, family planning coverage, total fertility rate and general fertility rate was significantly associated with total dependency ratio (P<0.009). We passed the first stage of demographic transition, i.e. young dependency ratio declining. But the old dependency ratio slowly increased; it is recommended that the health care services should be promoted in future, especially services for old age people.