Comparing optimal oil production path to the Oil Production Profile in Buy-Back Contracts with Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming (Case Study: Dorood Field)

Dorood first generation Buy-Back Contract was signed in 1999 Between National Iranian oil companies (NIOC) and International oil companies (Elf and Agip). This project aimed at increasing output from the field by 80,000 barrels per day to 220,000 barrels per day. This study would like to compare Elf company's production profile with optimal oil production path from 2000 up to 2024. We use stochastic dynamic programming to model this problem. We solve it with using value function Iteration and Discretization method. This paper shows the optimal oil production path is different from IOC's production profile under buy-back contracts. Elf's accumulative oil production will be 107 to 360 million barrels less than optimal accumulative production from 2000 up to 2024. Hence, first generation of buy-back contracts such as Dorood Buy-Back Contract distort optimal oil production path. Inflexibility and inequitable risk sharing among NIOC and IOCs under the first generation of buy back contracts are the main reasons.