Factors affecting energy demand in Iran and ranking the share each of them approach to Bayesian Econometrics

Considering the fact that fossil resources are not endless and some countries like Iran are highly depended on oil income, it's important to notice the growth of energy usage and the air pollution that it causes and also analyzing the defining factors of energy demand. So in this study we analyze the effect of the 16 economical variables on energy demand in the time period of 1338-1389 by using the BMA and WALS averaging models. The results show that the oil income and GDP variable have the most effect in energy demand with positive signs. In rating this 16 factors by the probability of their presence in the estimated model the first factors in the order of importance are: the oil income growth variable, GDP growth variable, the logarithm of the ratio of energy consumption delay to GDP and the comparative delay of energy price. The changes of energy comparative prices didn’t have much of effect on energy consumption, at least in the period of sampling.