Trend analysis of the rate of mortality due to diabetes mellitus in Iran during the period of 2003-2010: A join point regression analysis

Determining the mortality rate of diseases in a community is one of the main components in health care planning of that community. This study used a join point regression model to determine the trend of mortality due to diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran. The data on the rate of mortality due to DM were obtained from the reports of the Iranian Ministry of Health. The variation in the trend of mortality due to DM over the past eight years was analyzed using the join point regression model. For the evaluation of the regression parameters, the permutation test and least square method were applied. Data analysis was performed using the JOINPOINT statistical software. The number of deaths due to DM has increased from 3047 cases per 100,000 people in 2003 to 5838 cases per 100,000 in 2010. A variation point was observed in 2007 with a P-value of 0.06 and 4500 permutations. The annual percentage change (APC) of the rate of mortality due to DM for the first period (2003-2007) was 6.6% with a confidence interval of -3-17.2 and for the second period (2007-2010) was 1.8% with a confidence interval of -12.4-18.2. APC was 4.6% in men with the confidence interval of 2.4-6.9 and 4.5% in women with the confidence interval of 2-7. The rate of mortality due to DM in Iran has increased during this 8-year period. The rate of mortality due to DM increased with a steep slope from 2003 to 2007 and with a gentle slope from 2007 to 2010.