The study of the effect of oil volatility on the macro economy variables in Iran on VAR (A Case Study 1971-2011)

The present article using an autoregressive model, studies the effect of the fluctuations of the oil price on the macro economy variables such as domestic gross production, money volume, price index and the government expenditure in Iran as the fourth oil exporter country. For this purpose it has used the data relating to the variables during the era of 1350-1390 (1971-2011) and the pattern of Vector Autoregressive (VAR). The results show that during the studied years regarding economic structure of our country the money volume has been increased along with the oil income rise which has raised the rate of inflammation. It has also shown that each oil volatility has a negative effect on the domestic gross production in Iran and this effect is being risen during the years. The fluctuations of oil price can impose important effects on the most countrie's economy. in addition to effecting on the economy of the oil importer countries, these fluctuations are considered as one of the main resources of disorders in the economy of oil exporter countries so that the rise of oil price causes a rise in foreign exchange income made by oil sale and it provides the possibilities of fast price rise, the rate of wages and imports in these counties.