Assessment of Impact of Climate Change on Firoozabad River Runoff with Downscaling of Atmospheric Circulation Models Output by SDSM and LARS-WG Softwares

This study investigates the effects of climate changes on the runoff of the Firoozabad River located in Fars Province, Iran. In order to downscale the output of the atmospheric circulation model, LARS-WG software was used in the base station and software SDSM is used in the upper station. In order to select atmospheric circulation models that fit the studied area, the initial weighting was used as the screening element. To examine the effects of climate changes on the runoff, ANN trained with ICA algorithm was used. The results of investigating the climate changes indicate the increase of temperature between 0.7 to 1.8°C for the minimum temperature and the increase of 0.7 to 1.7°C for the maximum temperature. Although the increase of precipitation was very low, the results indicate the increase of 2 to 12% of the rainfall. The results also indicate the decrease of runoff in April, May, June, and October and the increase of runoff in the other months. Considering the uncertainty, the highest runoff uncertainty is observed in January and April.