Analyzing Climate Change Effects on Agriculture Sustainability in Mazandaran Province

Regional development planning requires knowing of climate parameters and adaptation to climate change in future. This is especially more important for Mazandaran province which economy is mainly dependent on agricultural production. In this study, changes in minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and the number of hot and freezing days of Ghaemshahr city (Mazandaran province) were predicted by the year 2100 and possible effects of these changes on the agriculture of the region was discussed. The climatic variables were predicted by HADCM3 general circulation model under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios using LARS-WG downscaling model. Evaluation of the model using statistics including model efficiency, coefficient of determination, root mean square error and mean absolute error indicated acceptable performance of the model to simulate future climate conditions in the region. Increases in monthly average of minimum and maximum temperatures in the warmer months will be more than those in the cold months. Increase in the minimum temperature was generally higher than that of the maximum temperature. The average of minimum temperature increase for all scenarios in future periods was 1.65 ° C, while it was 1.13 ° C for maximum temperature. In January, February, March, April, October and November, rainfall generally will increase compared to the base period and in the other months, it will decrease. Also, the amount of solar radiation will decline in all scenarios. On average, potential evapotranspiration will increase by 8.24, 10.47 and 12.68 % during 2011- 2100 compared with the base period under B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. Based on the results, modification in cropping calendar and pattern and improvement of irrigation and drainage practices are necessary to provide sustainable agriculture in the region under climate change.