Technical Note: Statistical downscaling of HadCM3 model for projection of temperature (Case study: Saghez station)

Climate change and global warming are major challenges in 21 century which affects agriculture, water resource and environment significantly. In this study, the outputs of HadCM3 general circulation model were statistically downscaled using LARS-WG model under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios for projection of Tmax and Tmin variables. The outputs for future period of 2046 to 2065 were compared with baseline period of 1961-1990.The Weather generator performance in simulation of temperature data were evaluated using statistical indices of MSE, RMSE and MAE. The projected data showed that both minimum and maximum temperature would rise during all month of future period. This increase is 3.2 and 3 ◦C for Tmin and Tmax comparing to baseline period, respectively. Highest and lowest increase for both variables was projected by A1B and B1 scenarios. The results may be used in water resource management and crop water requirement calculation.