Complex and Chaotic Systems: Model of Sensitive Dependency, Deterrence and War

Chaotic and complex systems exhibit surprising and nonlinear behaviors in complexity situations. Although scientists have studied these theories for many years, but in theoretical field of international relations, especially war and deterrence hasn’t been survived. Fundamental idea in this article is uneven distribution of sensitive dependency among states and in complex and chaotic international system as a network is driving force and key variable in explaining of war. The author believes that distribution patterns of sensitive dependency in system will form nonlinear strategic stability equation or make it dysfunctional. Therefore war control system especially deterrence is faced to nonlinear state with transitional equilibrium. This system should operate in self-organized method. Every instability in this system could lead to war. By this way by undermining the deterrence system, nonlinear instability could trigger of war. This argument conceptualizes an understanding of war and deterrence drown from complexity and chaotic theory and suggests that future researches into question of war and deterrence must be aimed to develop such theories and models.