Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran
Author(s):
Abstract:
Background
Weather and climate play a significant role in human health. We are accustomed to affects the weather conditions. By increasing or decreasing the environment temperature or change of seasons, some diseases become prevalent or remove. This study investigated the role of temperature in cardiovascular disease mortality of city of Mashhad in the current decade and its simulation in the future decades under conditions of climate change.Methods
Cardiovascular disease mortality data and the daily temperatures data were used during (2004-2013) period. First, the correlation between cardiovascular disease mortality and maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated then by using General Circulation Model, Emissions Scenarios, and temperature data were extracted for the next five decades and finally, mortality was simulated.Results
There is a strong positive association between maximum temperature and mortality (r= 0.83, P-valueConclusion
By increasing temperature and the number of hot days the cardiovascular disease mortality increases and these increases will be intensified in the future decades. Therefore, necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable group.Keywords:
Language:
English
Published:
Iranian Journal of Public Health, Volume:46 Issue: 3, Mar 2017
Pages:
396 to 407
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