Quantitative Methods in Analyzing Spatial Development of Urban Housing in Bojnord (2005-2015)

Appropriate shelter and affordable housing as an essential and vital human need and as one of the main and important elements in forming and physically developing cities have become the most important subject in spatial development and planning in contemporary urban areas. Housing, which by definition means a set of houses, streets and related facilities, is the most important component of a city and its development affects environment, economy, culture and social issues in an urban area. There are many indicators and criteria to evaluate housing conditions such as building quality (i.e. materials), property types, age, and density and so on. Nowadays the importance of spatial approach for studying urban aspects has become increasingly evident. Therefore, quantitative methods should be introduced and used to evaluate development trends in such spatial approach. Studying spatial aspects of urban housing development and analyzing distribution of its features does not have a long history in Iran.
In this research, as an applied research, descriptive and analytical methods were used. Thus, the required data was collected from statistical almanacs and results of a recent comprehensive census in 2011 and construction licenses which were authorized by the Bojnord municipality council during the 2004-2014 period. The general trend of spatial development of urban housing was studied and evaluated using quantitative methods such as Shanon's Entropy and Moran's Global Coefficient. The area of the city was divided into 26 subdivisions according to the approved detailed plan (2004). Then, spatial distribution of three main types of housing (one and two-store buildings, three and four-store buildings and more than four-store buildings) was derived through collected data and entered into a GIS database to apply the models. In addition, correlation analysis was used to clarify parameters which influence spatial changes in housing distribution in Bojnord.
This research is one of the first experiences in spatial analysis of distribution of housing properties at city level using quantitative methods. Bojnord is located in North-East Iran and is on average 1,070 meters above sea level and has a population of over 200,000 inhabitants. Current center of the city was formed during the Qajar dynasty, 350 years ago. Since upgrading to the center of North Khorasan province, Bojnord has experienced a rapid and sudden growth in physical, economic and social aspects and as a result in urban housing. Studying quality and process of urban housing growth and development in Bojnord during the aforementioned period using a spatial approach is the main goal of this research. After establishment of the new province, Bojnord has evolved in terms of shape and type of housing development trends. Except for the center of the city and margin areas (which are considered as informal settlements), it seems the trend of housing development in Bojnord aims toward more centralization and density. Such changes might be observed in emerging residential complexes and growing number of apartments in the city which can also be considered as evolving lifestyle in Bojnord.
Based on the results, increasing construction and housing development causes a more centralized pattern in urban housing. Such trend was caused by national elements such as inflation or deflation rather than local parameters such as population and land prices. On the other hand, it may be concluded that urban sprawl has not occurred in Bojnord in this period of time. In conclusion, all kinds of housing planning at all levels (national, regional or urban planning) should take spatial approach instead of leaning on merely physical aspects, and cannot be implemented and evaluated based only on internal factors and parameters.