The Effects of Changes in Oil Revenues on Intermediate Goods Import; Results for Resistive Economics

The imports of intermediate and capital goods that make up the bulk of the country's imports are very vulnerable against the unjust sanctions imposed by the global arrogance, which can have negative effects on the domestic production which relies on these commodities. One of the most important factors affecting the import of intermediate and capital goods is oil revenues that will have an impact on the exchange rate. This research examines the vulnerability of 10 groups of intermediate and capital goods and then by designing an index for vulnerable commodity groups in the country production, ranks these groups by importance. we use a threshold regression model for examine the effects of reducing in oil revenue shocks on intermediate goods import. Based on the findings of this study, five major groups of intermediate goods, namely oilseeds and industrial crops, natural rubber, basic metals, artificial plastic and synthetic fuels are the most vulnerable intermediate and capital goods.