Assessment of policies of changes in cropping pattern and deficit irrigation management using system dynamics modeling (Case study: Aras basin)

The control and managing water crisis can be offered and applied different strategies. In this regard, policies of changes in cropping pattern and deficit irrigation management can be considered as two strategies for optimal consumption of agricultural water. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of these policies on the sustainability of agricultural and water resources in Aras basin. For this purpose, developing a system dynamics model of water resources management in Aras basin by considering economic and environmental aspects and three scenarios of changes in cropping pattern and six scenarios of deficit irrigation management were analyzed. Results showed that if using other strategies is not possible, combining of 40 percent deficit irrigation scenario with existing or optimal cropping pattern can be used to control and manage water resources in Aras basin. Also, reducing 3 percent of withdrawing of groundwater resources in agriculture, considering the high potential of surface water resources in Aras basin, will lead to sustainability of water resources and it was suggested that this strategy should be considered by managers as effective policy for reducing problems of water crisis in this basin.