Determining Climatic Model of Rain-fed Wheat Yield at North of Khouzestan Province

Food security depends on production of basic agricultural crops such as wheat. In rain-fed wheat cultivation, climatic parameters such as temperature and rainfall have much effect on the wheat production. In this research, multi-year meteorological parameters and rain-fed wheat production data of Dezful, Shooshtar, Andimeshk and Masjed-Soleiman counties were used to determine the climatic model production at north of Khouzestan province. To estimate the amount of the effect of different meteorological factors on wheat yield, the linear regression methods at the local and regional scales were used. The findings showed that for estimation of wheat yield, local models need less data model than the regional ones. However, in comparison the local models had more accuracy than the regional model. Also, sensitivity analysis showed that, the mean of maximum temperature and that of precipitation of winter months were most sensitive parameters on wheat yield. In addition, wheat yield increases by the increase in the rain fall. But, rainwater productivity has had wide fluctuation between 0.07 to 0.39 kg/m3 in various years in the region. This shows that more attention should be paid to other factors such as farming factors for increasing rainwater productivity.