The Impacts of Price and Policy Shocks on Output and Inflation In the Iranian Economy: SVAR Approach

This study investigates the impacts of price and policy shocks on output gap and inflation in the Iranian economy. Thus, a small-scale open macro-econometric model, included the output gap, inflation, investment, real money supply, government expenditure, real exchange rate and oil revenues is estimated using the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach based on the data available annually time series covering the period 1961 – 2010.
Impulse response functions show an expansionary monetary shock increases output gap and inflation. Although, the impact of expansionary government expenditure shock is positive on output gap, but because of inflationary budget deficit financing, the money supply and inflation also increase. As a result of the positive oil revenues shock, the output gap, money supply and inflation rise where in the context of a managed exchange rate regime, the real exchange rate appreciates and leads to a decline in competitiveness of the economy.
The forecast error variance decomposition shows that the variability in the output, apart from its own shock, is explained substantially by government expenditure and real exchange rate shocks. The study reveals that the variability in the inflation is also explained by government expenditure, output and money supply shocks. The policy implication of these findings is that fiscal policy can be used more effectively to stabilize the domestic economy.