Multi-scenario Simulation of Shale Oil Production Using System Dynamics Approach

The North American oil production surge led by US shale oil, has produced a global supply shock and the effects of it's continued growth will cascade through the global oil market. This paper attempts to find out the future trend of US shale oil production and analyze that, with regard to technological, economic, and geological factors, using system dynamics approach. The proposed model is used to analyze US shale oil peak and market shares, up to 2035, under different price, resource and technology scenarios. The results show that US shale oil peaks around 2025, and it's rate ranges from 8.51 to 30.71 MB/day, which is 8–30 percent of total oil demand. Simulation results reveal that US shale oil cant be a major source for the market in the long run unless by increasing oil recovery factor.