Performance of hybrid particle swarm algorithm to simulate water level (Case study: Ardabil aquifer)

Groundwater and water resource management play key roles in water resource sustainability in arid and semi-arid areas. Forecasting groundwater level is very important for water resource management and planning. In this study, an artificial neural network and a particle swarm algorithm based on artificial neural network models have been used to estimate groundwater level in the Ardebil plain. Water table level data for the 1972 -2011 period was used as our data in this study. Model inputs were water table level of various months. Results of both models were evaluated by root-mean-square error, the correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. Results showed the performance of the particle swarm algorithm based on artificial neural network models to be superior. Root-mean-square error results for the particle swarm algorithm model in spring, summer, autumn and winter were 0.476, 0.507, 0.309, and 0.386 respectively. These results show that the hybrid structure of the network in training leads to increased accuracy. Thus, the particle swarm algorithm based on artificial neural network models can be used to estimate groundwater level in the Ardebil plain with acceptable accuracy.