The Trend and Future Prospect of Agricultural Land Development in Afghanistan's Helmand River Basin Based on Satellite Images and GEOMOD Method

One of the most important issues to consider in conflicting trans-boundary river basins like Helmand is the potential for agricultural development. This paper evaluates the land use changes between in the Helmand basin between 1990 and 2013 using remote sensing images and an object-based method. The results show the irrigated land area has changed from 10,000 to 18,000 km2 during this period while rainfed areas decreased by 70%. Using the GEOMOD method and Markov chain evaluations, it is projected that agricultural areas can expand up to 25,465 km2, that means an additional 7465 km2 of agricultural land development. Considering water availability limitation, the maximum agricultural land development cannot exceed 4366 km2. The spatial evaluation of this progress revealed that development is mainly expected to take place in the Arghandab and Middle Helmand sub-basins that can seriously affect the river inflows to Iran and threaten the security and ecosystem in the region. However, considering the new policy of Iran on cross-border farming this can be turned to an opportunity for a win-win management of the Helmed trans-boundary river basin.