Assesment of modal shift in freight transportation in the context of sustainable development; case study of Iran

Transportation infrastructure imposes enormous costs, along with several negative consequences, on the governments. In the year 2010, 90 percent of ton-kilometer transported freight in Iran was moved by truck, while its associated externalities are almost 9.5 times the rails’. Net benefits were computed as the difference between system benefits and scenario costs for each scenario. Then, net benefits are compared in 9 scenarios. Accordingly, allowing discounts had the greatest impact on changing the transportation mode, and removing the subsidies led to substantial profit. Air pollution response of these scenarios were studied, results suggest that in the compound scenarios, the profit from reducing air pollution starts from half the income of road commodity movement and arrives up to 1.5 of this income. Also the scenario with 30% removal of subsidy, 45% of rail discount can be pointed out for further reducing air pollution, and earning a final profit, 1.2 times the sum of the country’s transportation income from the rail and road sectors. Finally, expected benefit of each shifted ton-kilometer from truck to rail is 3300 rials. As argued above, initial studies indicate the existence of potential profit in modal shift from truck to rail, and more comprehensive studies can pursue improved functional applications.