Comparison of methods of seismic hazard assessment, case study: Dasht-e-Bayaz area, E Iran

Dasht-e-Bayaz region is one of the most seismically active areas in eastern Iran, which has relatively long and active faults. 1968 and 1979 catastrophic earthquakes (MW>7.0) in this area show that the area has experienced significant damages. Using existing maps including active faults map and satellite images and Seismological catalog of International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, seismotectonic map was prepared and seismic hazard was investigated using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Also, for AHP method, special questionnaire was designed, which answered with seismologists and the seismic hazard was evaluated using AHP method. The deterministic and probabilistic results show that there is probability of occurrence of an earthquake with magnitude of 7.6 during a 20-year period in Dasht-e-Bayaz and Qaen regions. Also, using the two above methods the highest risk is related to Ferdows thrust fault within the investigated active faults in the Dasht-e Bayaz-Qaen area. Although, the AHP method, which considers hypocentral and epicentral distances of the earthquakes, mechanism of the faults and kind of the bedrock, introduces Dasht-e-Bayaz fault region as a high risk area