Evaluation of Droughts in North Branch of Zab River During 2011-2065

The weather forecast data for future planning is very important in the fields of natural and human. Including could be the prediction of droughts and floods, and so on, in which case systematic planning, reduced probable damages. In this study, the effects of climate change on drought conditions North Branch of Zab River catchment located in the South West of Western Azerbaijan province, as the most important river plains of Piranshahr, during the period 2065-2046 using the indicators of drought (DI), SIAP and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been paid. Initially daily data output of general circulation models of the atmosphere HADCM3 under the scenario A1B, A2 and B1, by statistical model LARS-WG Version 5, small scale and the ability of LARS-WG in the simulation of past climate (2010-1992) studied for the station simulated. So it, using the precipitation data of drought situation to help mentioned indicators is discussed in annual terms, that the results are conform these indicators proves to identify periods of drought. Considering to periods of drought that occurred in the observation data and results for the period is anticipated, we will see station in Piranshahr, increase the severity and duration of drought in the study area in the coming years.