Assessment of land-use change impacts on water quality parameters in sub-basins of Hableh rood watershed using multivariate statistics and time series models (ARIMA)

The purpose of this study was to assessment of land use change impacts on quality of surface water resources in sub-basins of Hableh rood watershed. In order to, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis (FA), TDS was selected as an indicator of water quality parameter. In the next step, by time series models (ARIMA), TDS was modeled for 30 years and among different ARIMA models, a model with a lowest error and akaike (AIC) criterion was selected as an optimal model for TDS. Desirable models for Benkuh, Delichay, Gursefid, Keylan, Namrud, Marzdaran and Tangeh Rameh were (0,1,2), (0,0,1), (1,1,2), (4,1,0), (0,1,1), (1,1,1) and (1,1,1), respectively. The results of time series models (ARIMA) showed Namrud, Keylan and Gursefid have maximum amount of TDS. Then, land use was studied that showed maximum area of agricultural lands, residential and roads in these sub-basins. On the other hand, Industrial areas are located in Keylan and Namrud. The results of this study showed efficiency of time series modeling and multivariate statistics in analyzing of land use change impacts on water quality parameters.