Assessing and modeling effective environmental parameters on snow ‎avalanche in Meigun-Shemshak road using multivariate statistical ‎techniques

Snow avalanche is one of the snowy and mountenous areas phenomenons that may result in ‎hazzards and irreparable problems. The objective of this study is to determine the most ‎important effective factors in avalanche events in Meigoun-Shemshak road. Meigoun- ‎Shemshak road has been located in Shemshak drainage basin with area of 37.75 Km2 in ‎Roodbar Ghasran district, Shemiranat County, Northeast Tehran. To assest avalanche ‎corridors, effective enviromental parameters on avalanche including length of valley, width of ‎valley, azimuth, slope percentage, valley curvature coefficient, elevation, clay, silt, sand, ‎roughness coefficient, vegetation and rock cover percentage, precipitation, temperature and ‎snow were determined. In the studied area, three types of valley were identified: ephemeral ‎avalanche valley, permanent avalanche valley, without avalanche valley. The enviromental ‎parameters comparison between ephemeral avalanche valley and permanent avalanche valley ‎showed that slope percentage, roughness coefficient, clay, silt, sand, vegetation and rock ‎cover percentage are significant in the valleys and also in comparison between the sections of ‎them only valley curvature coefficient was significant. In comparison between three types of ‎valleys, parameters: Azimuth, valley curvature coefficient, slope percentage, surface ‎roughness, vegetation and rock cover percentage were significant. The results of comparison ‎between sections of the three types showed valley curvature coefficient was the significant ‎parameter. The most important parameters affecting the avalanche are Azimuth and surface ‎roughness coefficient.‎