Time Series Analysis of Monthly Suicide Rates in West of Iran, 2006–2013
Author(s):
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
Introduction
Iran’s western provinces have higher suicide rate compared to the other provinces of the country. Although suicide rates fluctuate over time, suitable statistical models can describe their underlying stochastic dynamics.
Methods
This study was conducted to explore the fluctuations of the monthly suicide rates in the most populated western province of Iran using exponentialsmoothing state space model to compute the forecasts. For this reason, the monthly frequencies of completed suicides were converted to rates per 100,000 and a state‑space approach was identifed and ftted to the monthly suicide rates. Diagnostic checks were performed to determine the adequacy of the ftted model.
Results
A signifcant seasonal variation was detected in completed suicide with a peak in August. Diagnostic checks and the time series graph of the observed monthly suicide rates against predicted values from the ftted model showed that in the study period (from March 2006 to September 2013), the observed and predicted values were in agreement. Thus, the model was used to obtain the short‑term forecasts of the monthly suicide rates.
Conclusions
In this study, we had no signifcant trend but seasonal variations in the suicide rates that were identifed. However, additional data from other parts of the country with longer duration are needed to visualize the reliable trend of suicide and identify seasonality of suicide across the countryKeywords:
Language:
English
Published:
International Journal of Preventive Medicine, Volume:10 Issue: 5, May 2019
Page:
9
magiran.com/p1982146
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یکساله به مبلغ 1,390,000ريال میتوانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
توجه!
- حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران میشود.
- پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانههای چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمیدهد.
In order to view content subscription is required
Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 70 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!