Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Change on Soil Erosion (Case study: Kondaran watershed)

Climate change and land use can greatly affect soil erosion and the ability of the soil to maintain agriculture, and in turn could affect regional or global food security. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of climate change and land use change on erosion using the RUSLE model. Therefore, climate change is based on two scenarios of climate change, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 using the statistical model For the period 2015-2030 and 2050-2050. The LCM model was used to predict land use changes in the Kondran watershed. Also, the RUSLE model was used to assess the soil erosion in the base period (1986-2015) and in simulated courses (2016-2030 and 2031-2050) under the influence of climate change scenarios. The results showed that rainfall erosion and factor C in the RUSLE model are directly affected by climate change and land use change and vegetation cover. So that, R-factor will increase from 83.7 in basis period to 83.7 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1 in 2016-2030 and 82.3 in 2031-2050. Also, C-factor will increase from 0.225 in basisi period to 0.43 during 2016-2030 and 0.56 during 2031-2050. The average soil erosion was 9.8 (ton/ha/year) during the base period, which in durint 2016-2030, using the two scenarios examined, averagely 11.37 ton/ha/year will increase and during 2031-2050 will increase to 10.3 ton/ha/year.