INTEGRATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT AND FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEMS IN ORDER TO PROJECT TIME ESTIMATION IN GAS REFINERIES CASE STUDY: CONSTRUCTION OF KHANGIRAN

Nowadays the importance of time management in the field of construction projects is well known for everyone. Time management can be effective in a project when the project schedule is based on reasonable, sustained and comprehensive time estimation. In the industries with complex processes such as gas refineries, considering limitations and risks involved in the project implementation and also many uncertainties that affect the implementation of project activities, the importance of the Time Management will be more significant. As the ongoing projects are directly or indirectly linked with continuous production in the gas refineries, operational musts and site classification based on the HSE risks besides limitations of the project implementation in normal condition, increases excess uncertainties to the project schedule. Considering the very low reliability of the planning with certainty and project control by this approach, using more secure models for control and interact with uncertainty to be placed on the agenda. This article aims to present a new model based on the integrated risk management & fuzzy expert systems in order to provide accurate and comprehensive project time estimation in the gas refineries of the IRAN and in this regard reviews the results of implementation of this model in a case study.