Esimating Total Fertility Rate and Its Components in Iran; Using Multivariate Demographic Method

This paper applies a new multivariate demographic method to study total fertility rate and its components in Iran. The method is based on discrete-time survival models of parity progression, with one such model for each parity transition. Parity transitions are transition from woman’s own birth to her first birth (0-1), from first to second birth (1-2), from second to third birth (2-3), and so on. Survival models yield probabilities of having a (first) birth by age, parity, and duration in parity. These probabilities are then used to construct multivariate multi-dimensional fertility life tables. The study uses a %2 sample of Iran’s 2006 Population and Housing Census and includes both period and cohort approaches. The analysis shows a two-stage fertility transition in Iran. Fertility control, at first stage, includes lowering and limiting fertility at higher and lower ages of reproduction. The second phase of fertility transition is to postpone the timing of childbearing. In the first stage of fertility transition, women with high fertility, diminishes their number of childbearing, while in the second fertility transition, women with low fertility postpone their childbearing.