Population and Water: Determining the Optimal Population Size Based on the Fresh Water Resources in Iran

Optimal population size and an appropriate policy approach towards its achievement has been among the most important concerns of governments, particularly in developing countries. Over-population  can expose each country to various challenges. Unlike educational, health care and accommodation constraints, which can be handled with long-term or mid-term planning, natural resources are limited and mostly non-compensable by plans and human activities. Thus it could be asserted that the biggest obstacle against population growth is limitation of natural resources. Fresh water as an example is vital  for human life-cycle, and any shortage or contamination of water would cause serious and inevitable problems to the environment and people’s life. In this paper,  first, water resources and its capacity in Iran are assessed and as a next step, an index has been defined for annual consumption of fresh water using economic panel data. Then, by comparing this index with the Iranian water consumption, optimal population size has been estimated. We can conclude that with no serious change in current water consumption, Iran will encounter a serious challenge in water resources. Hence, according to these results, it is suggested New Population policies should consider natural resource and water limitations.