Seismic Risk Analysis with a Probabilistic Approach Using the CRISIS Model for Zarinshahr City

Earthquake as one of the most significant environmental hazards of the earth, threatens most regions of Iran. in recent years the importance of earthquake hazards in the country has increased due to the rapid expansion of cities and the population and capital concentration. Zarin Shahr City as the center of Lenjan city in Isfahan province has a high risk of seismic hazard, in terms of population, socioeconomic infrastructure, and on the other hand, due to the presence of several active faults in and around of it. Accordingly, studies on seismic risk analysis of this city and recognizing high risk areas are one of the requirements of urban management. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to use a probabilistic method for analyzing and zoning the earthquake hazard in Zarrin Shahr city by using the Crisis model. The research method was descriptive-analytical and it has been analyzed by using library studies (documents, geological and topographic maps, digital elevation model, seismic data catalog, genealogy images). The results of this study show that more than 17,000 hectares of urban land are in high-risk areas and therefore, considering to the fifteen thousand of population which are inhabitants in this area, attention to the design and implementation of resistant structures to seismic hazard and also the strengthening of the worse parts will significantly help to reduce the possible damage which is caused by the earthquake.