Structural Evolutions of Rural Demographic Identity of Markazi Province from 1996 to 2011

The formation of rural areas as the initial cores of civilization and activity can be attributed to environmental factors, but the continuity of the economic and social life of villages has faced major challenges over time as a result of the widespread and accelerated transformation of the effects of modernity and unbalanced development planning. Demographic disorders and rural work-force structure, followed by a decline in economic functions, especially in relation to agriculture, are the main identity challenges for the communities and rural areas.  The present study investigates the evolution of rural identity in Markazi province with emphasis on demographic structures through using statistical evaluations and modeling. The statistical population consists of all villages with more than twenty households in the two censuses of 1996 and 2011. By extracting all of the same population variables in two time intervals, several demographic indicators for each of these intervals were defined and calculated. After statistical descriptions and evaluation of distribution indices, the modeling of the demographic identity of rural areas of the province in two intervals was done using structural equation based on self-propelled approach. The household dimension, youth level (Wertheim Index), aging rate, kinship ratio, literacy and occupation rate constitute the common indices in both final and valid structural models of both intervals. The comparison of the statistical description and indices pattern coefficient in the structures and variables indicate that the household dimension, youth level of population and literacy rate are important determinants of the demographic characteristics of rural areas in Markazi province in both intervals. In contrast, the aged population at both intervals and much greater in 2011 threatened the structure and the demographic identity. The kinship rate in 1996, with a moderate and rational status had a positive contribution in the population structure of the villages of the province, but in 2011, it has an opposite role and influence.