Alteration of hydrologic flow indicators in Ardabil Balikhlouchai River under combined effects of change in climatic variables and Yamchi Dam construction using Range of Variability Approach

The hydrological regime of a river is the main influencing factor on the dynamics of river ecosystem and damming operations have a significant impact on river flow discharge. Therefore, the main objective of this research was to investigate the combined effects of  changing climate variables and the Yamchi Dam construction on the discharge flow of the Balkhlu-Chai River in Ardebil using IHA Software 7.1 during the pre and after dam construction period (1973-2003) and (2004-2014). Toward this, the trend in the amounts of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration variables were evaluated using MAKESENS software. Then, the changes to 33 hydrological parameters and Range of Variability Approach (RVA) were firstly estimated. Subsequently, changes in the parameters of the flow rate in the periods before and after dam construction were investigated in the magnitude, duration, timing, frequency and rate of change categories. According to the results of trend analysis the precipitation had a significant decreasing trend, while, the temperature has been increased during the available time period. Based on the results, about 92% of the minimum flow discharge was attributed to that after the dam construction, while 25% of the maximum discharge belongs to this period, which indicates a decrease in the magnitude of discharge flow due to the dam construction and decreasing trend of rainfall. Also, the number of high flow pulses during the period of before dam construction was 38% higher than the period of after dam construction, while the number of low pulses in the period after dam construction was reduced by 60.7% compared to the period pre-dam construction. The value of Rise Rate index in the after-dam construction period is 0.11, but in the period before the dam construction is 0.3, which indicates a notable decrease in the mentioned indicator. Generally, based on the Magnitude group parameters, it can be concluded that the average amount of river flow during the period after the construction of the dam decreased by 52% compared with the period before the dam construction which lead to considerable environmental issue regarding the river ecosystem and flow condition. It should be noted that the variation in the hydrologic indicators is mainly influenced by the dam construction and also the change of climate variables has also been influential in this regard, and the separation of affecting factors need to be considered in further studies.