Development of system dynamics based simulation models for runway safety planning

Safety has been established to maintaining and improving the productivity level of aviation industry with derivable benefits in terms of wealth and reputation. Despite, the investment in aviation; safety is generally recognized as an incurred cost, leading to compliance approach. This may be due to dearth of literature on generally agreed proactive safety performance indicator to justify the huge investment. This study therefore developed predictive models that evaluate runway safety investment strategies and predict the overall performance of the aviation system using System Dynamics stock and flow diagram.  An interactive computer programme of the models was written using Java programming language. The set of dynamic equations for predicting number of runway accidents, preventions, monetary savings/losses and safety programme breakeven period were the safety performance measures. Runway safety intervention effectiveness factor and level of budget implementation were system policy parameters used to control the mechanism of the runway safety system. Relevant data were obtained from Federal Aviation Authority, Nigeria to validate the models. Twenty-nine runway safety quantities were identified. The dynamic equations for number of runway accident preventions and monetary savings/losses exhibited exponential growth while number of runway accidents, exhibit exponential decay. The results of the simulation runs showed no significant difference with real life situations; thus the models can serve as useful tools to effectively and efficiently manage the behaviour and performance of runway safety programme.