Modeling estimation of fruit productivity of Crataegus aronia L. trees in Chahar-Tagh forest reserve in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province

The main purpose of this study was to model fruit production in different crowns’ diameter classes of hawthorn trees in a part of Chahar-Tagh forest located Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. 30 circular plots, each with 1500 m2, were conducted using systematic random network. The trees were divided into 6 diameter classes of the crown and in each diameter class, fruits of 10 trees were measured. In addition, for each selected tree, total height, diameter at breasts height (dbh), diameter of crown and crown ratio were also measured. The results showed that there is a significant difference between crown diameters in terms of fruit production. The results of modeling estimation of hawthorn fruit using one-way ANOVA showed that linear model with variables of dbh and the combination of average diameter of crown and crown ratio are the best variables in terms of model selection criteria. The result of model validation also confirmed this result. The results of the model showed that the average fruit production was 150.7 kg/ha. Totally, for 50 hectares of forest reserve, a production of 7535 kg fruit estimated which provide an income of 301400000 Rials for local communities.