Deriving Rule Curve Based on Standard Operating Policy and Using Hybrid Models of Hedging Rule-Genetic Algorithm and Linear Programing-Hedging Rule

Dam rule curves should be derived using operation models and considering reservoir storage as well as input flows, which results in better management of reservoir water. In this paper rule curves of Doroudzan dam in Fars province, has been derived, using standard operating policy (SOP), hedging rules and linear programming. The objective function is water deficit minimization during 88-92. Standard operating policies result in severe water shortage. To mitigate the severe water shortage in SOP; the hedging policy has been used, which accept some present delivery deficit to reduce greater shortage in the future. The Genetic algorithm has been used to find the hedging optimal factors. Finally, the results of SOP and hedging-GA are compared with a model linear programming based on hedging rules model. Total shortage in hedging-GA is 84.19 MCM, hedging-LP is 219.5 MCM and in SOP is 216.57 MCM. The GA-hedging model by supplying 88.33% of demands control the amount of shortage as well as the shortage severity. In addition, the average reservoir storage is the biggest amount among the three methods. Comparison of the mentioned models using assessment criteria including time reliability, volume reliability and vulnerability shows the hedging-GA model is less vulnerable and more reliable; therefor this model performance is better than the two other models.