Positive Consequences of Declining Fertility: Socioeconomic Analysis of Punjab, Pakistan

The present paper attempted to discover the behaviour of fertility differentials across the districts of Punjab, Pakistan. More precisely, it aimed to investigate some salient determinants of fertility differential through fitted regression line and scatter plot including the confidence interval.

Data in this study were gathered from Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2013-2014. The regression analysis was employed to evaluate the relationship of fertility determinants, followed by plotting two-way scatter plots and confidence intervals. For the empirical analysis, the total fertility rate (TFR) was taken as an outcome variable while the employment rate, underfive mortality, and contraceptive use were considered as determinants.

The results indicated that child mortality is a very significant variable in determining the level of fertility and it had the coefficient value of 0.0096. It was further found that child mortality has a positive relationship with fertility rates. Thus, child mortality must be reduced to overcome the issue of high fertility rates at the district level of Punjab. Contraceptive use was also a very effective variable regarding determining the level of fertility and had a negative coefficient value of -0.033. Finally, the employment rate was a very useful variable for the determination of fertility level.

The empirical results revealed that child mortality should be reduced in order to decrease the level of fertility in Punjab, Pakistan, and contraceptive use should develop through family planning programs.