Trend and Projection of Premature Mortality in Iran through 2030: A Modeling Study

Projection of mortality rates is essential for policy making and planning of health services. Premature mortality, as an important index, commonly refers to deaths occurring before 70 years of age. This study was conducted to estimate the trend of premature deaths from 2006-2015 and to project premature deaths for the 2016-2030 period.

We used national mortality data collected by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education’s Deputy of Health, and population data from the Statistical Center of Iran. Mortality and population data were categorized based on sex and 5-year age groups. The Bayesian hierarchical model was used to project future premature mortality rates through 2030.

Age-standardized all-cause premature mortality declines from 414.3 per 100 000 persons in 2010 to 300.3 per 100 000 persons in 2030 (27.5%) for men, and from 230.6 per 100 000 persons in 2010 to 197.2 per 100 000 persons in 2030 (14.5%) for women. In all age groups, the percent reduction of premature mortality was greater for men than women.

Overall, it is projected that premature mortality will witness a declining trend in both sexes in Iran. Accordingly, we would expect to achieve less than a third reduction in premature mortality by 2030, which is one of the Sustainable Development Goals.