Presenting a model for future study of supply chain in oil industry with soft approach

The efficient supply chain plays an important role in the production and distribution of oil products and petrochemicals in the country. The present study seeks to identify key drivers and future scenarios for the oil supply chain. Orientation of the study is, applied and in terms of methodology is considered multiple. To this end, firstly, using the literature review and expert interviews, key drivers of the future of the oil supply chain were determined and then, by applying the binomial test, these factors were screened. By using GBN technique and considering three indicators of specialty, intensity and consensus, among the 10 factors that were screened, six key factors were selected for scenario analysis. For final screening of the selected factors in the GBN method was applied DEMATEL. Finally, due to the degree of influence of key factors, two factors of foreign sanctions and macroeconomic policies related to anti-fragility were selected for mapping scenarios. With regard to these two drivers, research scenarios include: closed supply chain, fragile supply chain, anti-fragile supply chain, dynamic supply chain. To map the plausible scenarios of the research, CATOWE's tool of SSM was used.