Optimal Utilization of Water Resources of Ajbashir Qaleh Chay DamFuzzy Stochastic Programming Approach

Low participation and poor temporal and local distribution of rainfall in Iran and the importance of food security and sustainable agriculture make the need for proper and scientific use of water resources inevitable. In this study, optimal utilization of water resources of Ajbashir Qaleh Chay Dam in agricultural sector was investigated using extended Interval two - stage stochastic programming (ITSP) and extended ITSP with fuzzy variables. The data were collected from Regional Water Company and Agriculture Jihad Organization of East Azarbaijan in 2015-16, and in some cases, completed by a questionnaire. The model were written in the GAMS package. Results of extended ITSP showed that if the optimization method is used, the final allocation of water is zero, at low flow level for wheat and grape, at normal flow level for wheat, barley and grapes, and at high current levels for wheat and potato. The results of extended ITSP with fuzzy variables shows that the final water allocation at low flow level for wheat and grapes, at the normal flow level for wheat, barley and potato and at high current levels for wheat , barley and onion is zero. For the rest of the products, the optimal water allocation target is provided based on this optimized model. Comparing the total system profits of the two models shows that in the fuzzy model, the profit and system certainty increases simultaneously. Therefore, due to the lack of water resources in the agricultural sector and uncertainty, the officials of agriculture in Ajbashir by providing an optimal model while increasing farmers' profitability, reduce the unsustainability of water resources.