Evaluation of kinetic pattern and population dynamics Yersinia enterocolitica and Shigella dysenteriae in meat product (sausage) using a novel semi empirical models

Herein, three semi empirical kinetic models, i.e., exponential, homographic and n-order kinetic models were established to describe the microbiological population pattern and dynamic. To prove the generalizability of these models, the Yersinia enterocolitica and Shigella dysentery population dynamics have been investigated in sausage, as a complex food system, contained four different antimicrobial Ribes rubrum extract (RRE) concentrations (0, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 percent) at two storage temperatures (4 and 35 °C) during 17 days. Furthermore, to test the capability of these models, the results were compared with neuro-fuzzy system. Although, all three kinetic models showed a reasonable prediction accuracy, homographic kinetic model was the best for predicting antibacterial effects of RRE against Y. enterocolitica (R2 = 0.96-0.98, R2adj = 0.95-0.97, Q-squared = 0.87-0.90, and RMSE = 0.12-0.42) and the n-order kinetic model did the best in describing the kinetic pattern of S. dysentery (R2 = 0.94-0.98, R2adj = 0.92-0.96, Q-squared = 0.88-0.90, RMSE = 0.26-0.52). Semi-empirical kinetic models had better performance for predicting microbiological population dynamic than neuro-fuzzy system. Also, it’s worth mentioning that the novel semi empirical models presented important biological parameters which provided a better understanding of the systems biological state than neuro-fuzzy system. These results could offer new perspectives in the field of microbiology