Variation in General Price Level in Pakistan: A Recent Evidence by Using ARDL Approach (1974-2016)

The main purpose of this study to investigate the impact of the bank rate, budget deficit, FDI and money supply M2 on inflation in the case of Pakistan applying the ARDL model using yearly data from 1974-2016. The Experimental evidence highlight that there is a unique and stable relationship among dependent variable inflation and other different explanatory variables, bank rate, budget deficit, Foreign investment, GDP, Exchange rate and trade openness. After analysis, the result of ARDL indicates that bank rate, exchange rate, and GDP have a negative impact on inflation in the long-run co-efficient. On the other hand, budget deficit, FDI, Money supply M2 and trade openness have a positive impact on inflation. These two tests CUSUM and CUSUMSQ shed light on validates and stability of coefficients in this approach.