Review and forecast of the phenomenon of dust in Khuzestan Province using Box-Jenkins time series model
The aim of this study is to predict and verify the number of days of dust phenomenon selected stations in Khuzestan Province using Box-Jencks model. Study in eight selected stations of the province to compare the Box-Jenkins model and predict the effect of dust has been done. Using the Minitab 17 software Box-Jykyz time series model, number of days of dust monthly was checked and best models were fitted, the accuracy of the model using normal distribution of residuals, assuming constant variance, charts left over time, Mvntv Perth test was confirmed. Finally, Arc-GIS10.4 software was used for output mapping. Results showed that the best monthly pattern for Ramhormoz, Aghajari, Behbahan, Abadan, Dezful, Omidiyeh, Ahwaz and Masjed Soleiman are ARIMA (2,0,1)(1,1,1), ARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1), ARIMA (3,0,1)(2,1,1), ARIMA (1,0,1)(2,1,1), ARIMA (2,0,1)(2,1,1), ARIMA (3,1,1)(1,1,1), ARIMA (3,0,1)(1,1, 1) and ARIMA (4,0,3) (1,1,1), respectively. These models have a good accurately for predicting dust and the numbers of dusty days for 2018 to 2027. Also, results showed that Agajari, Abadan and Masjed Soleiman are more exposure with dust phenomena in Khuzestan Province that needs for further attention to city officials and planners in facing with this phenomena.
- حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران میشود.
- پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانههای چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمیدهد.