Assessment climate impact on Water Resources Availability in Kerman by implementing climate change scenarios

Close relationship between water and food, a Comprehensive assessment of water resources is indispensable in large scale for strategic decision-making on food security. The most effective factors on the water resources of a region can be referred to the climate, climate change and hydrological parameters. GCM models are the main instruments for climate change review. In this study, we used the GFDL-ESM2M model, four RCP scenarios and climate change toolkit (CCT) for climate change analysis and used the SWAT model for hydrological simulation of Kerman province. In this research, the base period of climate change and hydrological simulation of Kerman province was considered during 1990 to 2012 and the simulate climate change during 2020 to 2050. The simulation results were evaluated using NS and R2. The NS coefficient for precipitation and temperature at all stations obtained 0.8 to 0.95 and 0.88 to 0.99, respectively. The climate change results showed that in all scenarios precipitation probably increase in most regions. By studying the SWAT model results, it was determined that the middle and western regions of the province have green water storage. Also, the effects of climate change on blue water, green water flow and green water storage have reduced their amount.